What Separates an All-Time Great: Defining, Quantifying, and Ranking the Best Fifty Post-NBA–ABA Merger Players of All-Time

Publication: The International Journal of Sport and Society

October 2023

Link to Article: Here

Abstract

On October 21, 2021, the National Basketball Association (NBA) announced its 75th season’s anniversary team to commemorate the seventy-five greatest NBA players of all-time. The NBA compiled a group of writers, NBA executives, and current and former players to create the list. However, it is unclear what metrics, standards, or views the voters used to develop their respective lists. Using open-source information from basketballreference.com and the NBA’s official website, we created an original dataset with twenty-six variables normalized via z-scores for the 145 players who have made at least three All-Star games after the NBA–ABA (American Basketball Association) merger between the 1976–1977 and 2022–2023 seasons to examine three questions: Who are the top fifty players since the NBA–ABA merger? What statistics, awards, and accolades separate the top fifty players post NBA–ABA merger? and What are the minimum thresholds in the key career accomplishments that separate the top ten players? To answer the questions, we use a multistep process. We acknowledge three types of NBA greatness: regular season, playoff, and overall (regular season and playoffs combined). We create a dichotomous quantitative metric to define each type of greatness. We use the 145 players’ observable characteristics as predictors in a regression model to determine what combination of characteristics impacts the specific type of greatness. We fit the values from the regression model to each player’s profile to obtain a score for each player in each model. We combine each player’s scores across the three models to determine a comprehensive greatness score for each player. What is the Impact of College Basketball on an NBA Career: An Analysis of McDonald’s All-Americans from 2001 to 2012

Publication: The International Journal of Sport and Society

January 2021

Link to Article: Here

Abstract

Before 2006, the National Basketball Association (NBA) required 18 years of age and high school completion to enter their draft. Since 2006, the NBA requires players to be at least one year removed from high school and 19 years of age, effectively, requiring NBA hopefuls to participate in college basketball for at least one season. This raises the question, what is the impact of college basketball on elite high school players’ NBA production and prosperity? Using an original dataset of every McDonald’s All-American (MAA) from 2001 to 2012 and a causal inference technique called Linear Regression Propensity Score Matching (LRPSM), this article produces three findings. First, MAAs with zero years of college have longer NBA careers. However, they are less productive over the first five years in the NBA. Second, there is no difference in NBA production or prosperity when a MAA plays one or two years of college basketball. Third, the difference between MAAs playing two and three years of college basketball is significant. Three years of college basketball generates less productive and less prosperous NBA players. The strength of LRPSM is three-fold. First, MAAs only match with MAAs with similar propensity scores. Second, it eliminates outliers and focuses on draft policy regulations that affect players’ decisions to stay in college or pursue the NBA. Third, it provides an analysis that compares the impact of college on characteristics, not individual people. In conclusion, I recommend the NBA move toward a two-wave system that resembles Major League Baseball’s draft eligibility rules.